A decade after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates encompass identity markers, taxes, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will succeed here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
