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Residents of the Big Apple will find out the identity of their new city leader this Tuesday, in a contest that will decide who governs and defends the country's most populous metropolis at a moment when the former president has threatened to deploy armed forces to the city.

In this context, New York has experienced a mayoral election that has pitted two very different Democratic figures against each other. The contest has turned into an acrimonious face-off, laced with alleged racism and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading candidates that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has brought global notice. Representing the old guard is the former governor, the former New York governor now running as an independent – and enjoying the support of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the former longshot who beat Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a agenda of affordability and pledged to freeze rent for about two million city residents, has outpaced his rival by double-digits across all surveys conducted in October, and it is very much the progressive's election to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, the former governor, who stepped down as governor in 2021 amid accusations of misconduct, has made it clear he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has criticized Mamdani's objectives as unachievable, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Recently, the independent was strongly criticized as bigoted after posting an artificial intelligence video that included a series of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent freeing a convicts.

It's been a rather grubby conclusion to an election that could be critical to the path that the party, floundering in its reaction to the former president's authoritarian grabs, takes in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

If the progressive wins convincingly, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his bid will be compelled to address a message that has resonated with voters' frustration at inequality, inflation and the political elite. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to adopt at least some of Mamdani's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the fresh face has generated an enthusiasm within the party perhaps not witnessed since the Vermont senator campaigned for the White House in 2016.

Conversely, if the former governor, who had been predicted to win easily in the Democratic primary, complete a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could reinforce the party's existing approach of considered, lackluster opposition – a strategy that has infuriated grassroots members. A New York rejection of the progressive's progressive, positive message could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to remain in the political center – even as surveys show the present version of the party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Residents of New York appear to favor the progressive agenda. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their choice than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. Mamdani's engaging content on social media, his optimistic vision for New York and his readiness to actually venture out and meet people in the metropolis has attracted an army of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them young or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

Yet, the former governor, 67, isn't giving up. And with the stakes stacked against him, the former governor has turned to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

After spending months throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might resonate, Cuomo has concentrated on targeting the candidate personally. He has labelled his rival, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and appeared on conservative media for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo asserted the city “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It hit bottom recently, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Political Landscape

The line of attack mirrors much of what Trump, who has deployed the military reserves to Washington DC and threatened to do the same to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that is expected. A group of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to Trump in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to get the independent into office, as other influential figures have urged Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should never have come to this. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty state legislators, launched his mayoral bid in last year, few had known him, and in truth, barely anyone even noticed.

The former governor, by contrast, eased his way into the race in March 2025 and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who apparently held all the advantages. The quintessential political insider, he had married a Kennedy and worked in a Democratic presidency. He assumed office as New York governor in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his parent, the former governor, stepped down from the identical role.

Mamdani, who was elected to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – present a more positive vision of the city's direction than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Still, the candidate has faced some challenges in the final phase, after footage emerged appearing to show him implying the NYPD and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your neck, it’s been laced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the recording, recorded at a DSA gathering in recent years. The progressive, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was questioning cooperative programs between the city police and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, the candidate seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

The progressive addressed Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a lesson, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Addressing the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd